Rick Bowness’ name did not make the initial rumour mill, with the Jets first going all-in on Barry Trotz before widening their head coaching search. The 67-year-old, who was drafted into the NHL in the 1970s and coached the first version of the Jets to an 8-17-3 record in 1988-89, will not be seen as a modern hire.

Still, there are reasons for the Jets to like him that go beyond his 1980s tenure as a Jets player and then coach.

Bowness most recently coached the Dallas Stars to an 89-62-25 record in two and a half seasons after taking over from Jim Montgomery, following the latter’s midseason dismissal in 2019-20. Those teams were a slightly above average, defense-first group that struggled to score at even strength while icing an above average power play and a mid-tier penalty kill. On the surface, these are perfectly mediocre results — even with the Stars’ trip to the 2020 Stanley Cup Final included.

So why is Bowness a good fit for this already struggling Jets team?

It turns out that the things he accomplished in Dallas are exactly what Winnipeg needs most, particularly in the short run.

The Jets need to be a much better defensive team to have any sustained success. Bowness’ Stars were known for having a good defensive structure without a wealth of superstar talent. They made good on that structure, becoming a top-10 team in expected goals against and real goals against during Bowness’ tenure. Coaches I trust have already reached out to share confidence in Bowness’ technical acumen, particularly on the defensive side of the game. Defensively, Bowness is not Trotz — his name is not synonymous with protecting the ice between the faceoff dots — but he comes with a solid reputation and results alike.

This is supported by analytics; Micah McCurdy’s coaching model at Hockey Viz shows Bowness to have a healthy defensive impact at five-on-five. The Stars preached “winning 2-1 games” and it’s easy to imagine Connor Hellebuyck having more success behind last season’s Stars than most recent Winnipeg teams.

Of course, if Bowness is going to take these Jets — a team that last season accused itself of focusing too much on individual results — and turn them into a top-10 defensive team, he’s going to need a tremendous amount of buy-in.

This is an urgent need whether Blake Wheeler gets traded or not, whether Pierre-Luc Dubois signs for one year or eight and whether Mark Scheifele gets shopped or decides he’s all-in on 200-foot play. Bowness’ track record is good here, too. In Dallas, he was popular in the dressing room with Tyler Seguin saying that Bowness is the “ultimate man, family guy, just person to be around, learn from and talk to” and Jake Oettinger crediting his relationship with Bowness as part of his development.

Bowness is not afraid of criticizing star players or laying into the team when it’s not playing right. It’s an old-school element that comes with an old-school coach; that Bowness is able to share tough words with his players and still earn those quotes is a point in his favour. One reason may be his attention to the mental health of his club: Bowness’ approach to Dallas’ time in the 2020 “bubble” was cited as one reason for its success.

True North will be a big fan of Bowness’ reputation. A quick pulse-check of NHL sources Friday resulted in universal praise for Bowness as a person, even among those who called him Winnipeg’s “Plan C” or questioned his age. He is said to be upbeat, prepared, fun to be around and a proponent of family culture within a team. There are stories about him planning “mental break” practices, trading video prep in the middle of a long grind for three-on-three tournaments and uniting different factions of Stars players during the 2020 bubble.

There is criticism available here, too, though.

Despite Mark Chipman’s stated preference for coaches without a shelf life, Bowness’ age likely means he’s a short-term solution — if he is a solution at all.

Despite the Stars’ top-10 defensive performance, they were a bottom-10 offensive team; the top line scored nearly half their goals. The team did create more chances than it finished, which may give reasons for optimism — especially if you believe as I do that players are more responsible for finishing than coaching is. Still, it was an ongoing concern, particularly on the power play which oscillated from helpful to helpless at key times in Bowness’ tenure. It seems that he didn’t have an answer for depth scoring — something Winnipeg struggles with, too.

One reason for Dallas’ offensive struggle may have been the frequency with which the Stars dumped the puck: more than half of Dallas’ zone entries were dump-ins last season. Individual star players had success carrying the puck into the zone but, as a team, the Stars were among the league leaders in dumped pucks according to data tracked by Corey Sznajder. We know by now that gaining the blue line with the puck leads to substantially more shot attempts, shots and goals — whether Dallas’ dump-ins were on Bowness or his personnel, it’s likely they got in the way of offensive production. (The Jets’ carry-in percentage was high; Winnipeg spent too much time in its own zone last season but, when it did get on the attack, it tended to keep control of the puck off the rush.)

The other criticism is that no matter how prepared or well-liked Bowness is, it seems difficult to imagine a team that looked as disinterested in defending as last year’s Jets making an instant transformation toward Bowness’ strengths. The Jets’ tumultuous exit interviews have been widely discussed, with Paul Stastny questioning the team’s respect level, Wheeler talking about forwards committed to offence above playing a complete game and Scheifele and Dubois each expressing concerns about their long-term future in Winnipeg.

Even though there are plenty of lemons to work with, saccharine feelings and good vibes don’t automatically make lemonade. The Jets have to put in the sweat equity. No coach is so good so as to spare them that labour and Bowness’ impact, positive as it seems, is closer to average than spectacular.

Let’s end with a discussion of Bowness’ most enduring and Jets-applicable accomplishment in Dallas.

Consider the single biggest thing Bowness accomplished in Dallas: he transitioned the Stars from a veteran team that depended almost exclusively on Seguin, Jamie Benn and Joe Pavelski to one carried by young players like Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen and Roope Hintz.

In 2018-19, the season before Montgomery’s dismissal and Bowness’ midseason promotion, Dallas’ top six forwards were Seguin, Alex Radulov, Benn, Radek Faksa, Mats Zuccarello and Blake Comeau. Hintz was seventh, Robertson had yet to make the team and future breakout player Valeri Nichushkin played 11 minutes per game. Pavelski arrived in 2019-20 (and Robertson made his debut) on a team that spread its minutes out quite a bit more than the Jets ever have: everyone played more than 10 minutes per game while no one played more than 20. Fast forward to this season and you’ll find Robertson and Hintz have rocketed up the charts: Dallas’ top six forwards in 2021-22 were Pavelski, Robertson, Hintz, Seguin, Benn and Faksa.

What does this mean for Winnipeg?

At a glance, it means Scheifele and Wheeler’s minutes will drop a lot and Kyle Connor’s minutes per game will drop a little. It means that there is finally room for Nikolaj Ehlers to go from the sixth-most played Jets forward and finally get played like one of Winnipeg’s very best players. Bowness was fond of a checking line, led by Faksa, so I also think Adam Lowry’s importance will be re-established. Still, there is a sense that young stars can earn minutes — that it doesn’t matter how old somebody is or much money they make, Bowness will play the people who follow his plan.

Bowness’ track record also implies a more balanced split between the first- and second- power play units and a three-forward pair, two-defence pair approach to penalty killing. Star players like Hintz and Benn killed penalties in Dallas; perhaps Connor keeps his role on the PK.

Bowness’ defence played an active role in Dallas’ scoring. Part of this is inevitable on a team led by Heiskanen, Ryan Suter and John Klingberg (even Esa Lindell, the bigger, more physical part of the Stars’ top four, scored 25 points in 76 games last season). Heiskanen’s rise to prominence is probably more about his own ability than any coach but it’s worth noting that he led all Stars players in average ice time at just 22. That kind of usage for a young, 6-foot-1, 190-pound defenceman would be unheard of in Winnipeg. Meanwhile, 6-foot-6 defensive defenceman Jani Hakanpaa was limited to third-pairing usage.

The Jets blue line is a moving target next season. Josh Morrissey, Neal Pionk, Brenden Dillon, Dylan DeMelo, Nate Schmidt and Logan Stanley are the men set to return but Winnipeg needs to find room for Dylan Samberg and the Heiskanen-admiring Ville Heinola. The team’s top defencemen are already on the small and mobile side, which Bowness doesn’t seem to mind, but Winnipeg may need to move a bigger veteran before too long. Don’t be surprised if Dillon ($3.9 million AAV) is the guy to go; I think he can be a top-four problem solver for a well-structured team and will have some appeal.

If Bowness’ impact is to prioritize minutes for young stars like Ehlers, Connor and Dubois, generate buy-in, improve defence and be the first Jets head coach to give Heinola and Samberg big minutes, I think his tenure will be a success — but that’s an awful lot of ifs.

If anything, Bowness’ tenure will likely be short. This would be true for any 67-year-old coach and is more true with Scott Arniel in waiting as a possible long-term replacement. I expect Arniel is still likely to be named associate coach, as we first reported in May, and could be next in line if Bowness’ tenure lasts just one or two years.

Winnipeg didn’t lock down its Plan A, nor is Bowness a coach with a sparkling record or a Stanley Cup to his name. The Jets didn’t avoid hiring a retread, either, given that Bowness has stood behind a bench more often than any other coach in NHL history, and they certainly didn’t manage to hire someone without established Jets connections.

But it appears that Bowness is capable, well-spoken and well-liked. He is not the road to a playoff spot — especially given the amount of offseason work still on Kevin Cheveldayoff’s plate — but he might know the way.

(Photo: Glenn James / NHLI via Getty Images)